Friday, December 30, 2016

Russian Sanctions and How They Will Affect Trump

For the joint FBI-DHS report on Russian hacking click here.

In a report released after a joint investigation by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) they noted that there were two notable cyber attacks on the Democratic Party; one in the summer of 2015 and another in the spring of 2016.

For his response President Obama issued new sanctions yesterday against Russia in concerns of Russian involvement in the 2016 US election.  In an executive order he has given all Russian diplomats in the United States 72 hours to leave the country as well as shutting down two Russian Government-owned compounds that are located in Maryland and New York.  Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, has decided to not play tit-for-tat and will not force American diplomats in Russia to vacate.

This whole saga leads to a bigger question: What effect does this have on Trump and Republicans?

With Trump having a pro-Russia stance this has already put the GOP in a bind as their stance has always been to stay tough with the Russians.  As Austin Wright mentions in his Politico article that Obama's move "force[s] Republicans into a tough spot in which they can either soften their long-standing animosity toward Russia, opening themselves up to charges of hypocrisyor defy Trump."

As much as Trump can play the game of business pretty well, he still has a lot to learn about the game of politics, something that Obama is very good at playing.  Trump wants to "move on with out lives" and ignore the fact that another country helped him achieve his goal of the Presidency.  He, of all people, should know that voters and politicians do not let things lie and "move on."  People will harp on you until you relent with either facts to support your stance or you change your ways to satisfy the will of the people.

Again, does this discourage Trump after the diplomats have been sent packing?  Let's see:

That answer would be resounding NO.  As long as Vladimir Putin is giving Trump assurance he will not back down from the fact that he received help.  Remember when he asked Russia to help find Clinton's 30,000 missing emails?   Do you think he will back down now?  Unless he goes through the impeachment process then I very much doubt it.

Going back to the pinch that these sanctions puts on Republicans what will they do now?  It's well known that Trump and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan have had their issues during Trump's campaign, but Ryan still decided to vote for him when push came to shove.  Republican members of Congress that have always been against Trump and did not vote for him will feel that they have said and made the right calls regarding his views.   Others who voted for him because they believe in him will feel the same, but it will be those who voted for him purely to get a Republican back in office, but do not like his pandering that will be the most conflicted.  Do they stand by "their" man or do they step up to the plate and follow along their previous long-held beliefs?

Whatever it may be, it still stands the prospect that once Trump gets sworn in that he can remove the sanctions, effectively "moving on" and swiftly ignoring the facts, but if the GOP sticks to their anti-Russia stance as they have in the past, he could alienate his party within the first 100 days.  Until then, the ball is in the air and there are a myriad of options to go through before we know which one is right.

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